China's Automobile Export Watch

This report covers HS 8703 Passenger Vehicle Complete Car Exports (UN Comtrade, Annual), broken down into:

• BEV: HS 870380
• Petrol: HS 870321–870324
• Diesel: HS 870331–870333
• Other: HS 870390

Between 2020–2024, export value increased from $8.0bn to $74.7bn; export volume from 0.78m to 4.92m. In 2024, destinations covered 191 markets, with Top 10 destinations contributing ~58% of export value, and Top 20 contributing ~77%.

Growth from 2020–2022 showed an accelerating trend, 2023 saw a leap-frog expansion, while 2024 entered a "gear-shift period": scale continues to expand, but the growth structure has changed—quantity growth significantly outpaced value growth. Exports are shifting from "explosive amplification" to "sustained expansion of a larger plate," and the key going forward is not just "how much more it can rise," but "what drives the growth and where it happens."

The core structural change is: BEVs significantly boosted the electrification attribute of export value during 2022–2023, but a rebalancing occurred in 2024, with Petrol share rising in the total mix. Mapping to destination stratification, this usually means new growth came more from ICE-leaning markets and routes, while BEV absorption in high-electrification markets remained, but was insufficient to maintain the previous peak share.

The "Strong Volume, Weak Price" of 2024 is directly verified in the unit price proxy: both total and BEV unit values declined simultaneously, with BEV declining more sharply. Combined with the structural rebalancing in the previous section, 2024 looks more like a combination result of "electrified exports entering more mainstream price segments + growth contributed by low unit-price markets and model ranges." For the Watch, the unit price proxy is one of the most sensitive signals: as long as total volume continues to expand while unit price continues to fall, it means competition intensity and product structure are being reshaped.

The destination list presents two simultaneous facts: first, exports are highly concentrated, with a few markets determining the majority of the total volume; second, the powertrain structure differences across these "key markets" are huge, directly explaining why the overall BEV share retreated in 2024. Russia drove "Volume and Total Plate," Belgium/UK etc. drove "Electrification Structure," while Mexico etc. are in an intermediate state, absorbing scale while also providing some BEV growth. For readers, this means exports are not a single market story, but the result of "multiple market engines with different structures acting together."

The scatter plot puts "Destination Electrification Level" and "China Export Electrification Structure" into the same coordinate system, forming a clear explanatory chain: the more electrified the destination, the higher the BEV share of China's exports to that destination usually is; at the same time, there are two types of significant outliers—one is "Hub/Channel type destinations" (BEV share amplified by statistical path), and the other is "Large Plate but Low Electrification destinations" (Huge volume but BEV share remains low). These two types of outliers jointly explain the 2024 structural rebalancing: when low-electrification large-plate markets contribute more growth, the overall BEV share is diluted, even if BEV absorption in high-electrification markets remains strong.